Training - Convoys: Threat Identification
Threat identification involves recognizing potential dangers to a guerrilla convoy (2-6 vehicles, 4-12 members) to enable proactive evasion or response in a SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario within CONUS (Continental United States).
It requires assessing the environment, human behavior, and physical signs to detect threats like ambushes, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), or hostile forces, tailored to the guerrilla context of limited resources and reliance on stealth.
Common Threats
Ambushes
Armed groups (e.g., rogue militias, gangs, or hostile factions) attacking to steal supplies, vehicles, or personnel. In a SHTF scenario, economic collapse or civil unrest could lead to ambushes on rural roads or urban choke points, targeting convoys for resources.
Example: A militia sets up a kill zone on a highway overpass, using small arms and Molotov cocktails to stop a convoy.
IEDs
Homemade explosives placed on roads or bridges, detonated remotely or by pressure, common in lawless environments where groups aim to disrupt movement.
Example: A pressure-plate IED hidden under debris on a rural road, designed to disable a lead vehicle and trigger an ambush.
Hostile Checkpoints
Roadblocks set up by opposing factions, local warlords, or desperate civilians to extort supplies or control movement. In CONUS, these could arise in urban areas or near resource hubs (e.g., water sources).
Example: A gang blocks a city street with abandoned cars, demanding food or fuel to allow passage.
Pursuit by Hostile Forces
Vehicles or drones chasing the convoy, either to engage directly or track it to a base. In a SHTF scenario, this could include looters or organized groups using scavenged vehicles.
Example: A group in pickup trucks tails the convoy after spotting it leaving a supply cache.
Environmental Hazards
Natural or man-made obstacles like flooded roads, collapsed bridges, or chemical spills, exacerbated by infrastructure breakdown in a SHTF scenario.
Example: A washed-out bridge on a planned route, forcing the convoy into a vulnerable detour.
Recognizing Signs
Recognizing signs involves observing environmental, human, and physical cues that indicate potential threats. Guerrilla convoys rely on vigilance and local knowledge to detect dangers early, enabling evasion or preparation.
Unusual Civilian Behavior
A lack of normal activity (e.g., deserted streets in a usually busy town) or civilians fleeing an area suggests an impending ambush or checkpoint.
Example: Locals avoiding a rural intersection where they typically gather, hinting at a hidden threat.
Road Anomalies
Disturbed earth, debris piles, or unusual objects (e.g., abandoned vehicles) may conceal IEDs or signal a roadblock.
Example: A pile of tires on a highway shoulder, potentially hiding an IED or marking an ambush point.
Surveillance Indicators
Individuals or vehicles lingering at a distance, using binoculars, or following the convoy suggest tracking or planning an attack.
Example: A motorcycle repeatedly appearing at intersections, maintaining distance but observing the convoy’s route.
Environmental Clues
Smoke, gunfire sounds, or sudden road damage (e.g., fresh potholes) indicate recent conflict or traps.
Example: Distant explosions or smoke rising from a planned route, signaling active fighting or a setup.
Behavioral Cues at Checkpoints
Armed individuals with no clear affiliation, erratic behavior, or excessive demands at a roadblock suggest hostility rather than legitimate control.
Example: A checkpoint with mismatched uniforms and aggressive posturing, indicating a rogue group rather than organized authority.
Guerrilla-Specific Risks
Guerrilla convoys face unique risks due to their small size, limited firepower, and reliance on civilian resources, making them vulnerable to threats that military convoys might counter with force or support. In a SHTF CONUS scenario, these risks are amplified by widespread instability and lack of centralized authority.
Limited Firepower
With only small arms or improvised weapons (e.g., rifles, Molotov cocktails), guerrilla convoys cannot engage superior forces (e.g., well-armed gangs or militias). This forces reliance on evasion, increasing the risk of being cornered if routes are compromised.
Example: A convoy with handguns and a few rifles faces a militia with automatic weapons, making direct confrontation suicidal.
Exposure to Superior Forces
In a SHTF scenario, convoys may encounter organized groups (e.g., remnant military units, heavily armed gangs) with better equipment or numbers, overwhelming the small team.
Example: A rogue paramilitary group with armored vehicles pursues the convoy, outmatching its civilian SUVs.
Detection Risk
Operating in civilian vehicles without military-grade concealment (e.g., no electronic countermeasures) makes convoys susceptible to tracking via drones, GPS, or local informants, especially if they carry valuable supplies.
Example: A drone operated by a hostile faction spots the convoy’s movement, relaying its location for an ambush.
Resource Scarcity
Limited fuel, spare parts, or medical supplies mean breakdowns or injuries can cripple the convoy, forcing tough decisions like abandoning vehicles or personnel.
Example: A flat tire with no spare forces the convoy to abandon a vehicle, exposing it to looters.
Betrayal by Locals
In a SHTF scenario, desperate civilians or informants may betray the convoy’s route or location to hostile groups for personal gain, undermining the guerrilla advantage of blending in.
Example: A local trader, bribed by a gang, reveals the convoy’s planned route through a rural town.
These elements of threat identification ensure a guerrilla convoy can anticipate and avoid dangers in a chaotic CONUS environment, leveraging vigilance and stealth to compensate for limited resources.